The Presidential Race

With just over 20 days until election day, let’s take a look at the polls, betting markets, and other key considerations.

There are several key issues central to this election

Economy

The U.S. economy remains a central concern for voters as inflation continues to affect everyday life. Prices for essential goods, fuel, and housing have risen significantly, straining household budgets. While job growth has been robust in some sectors, economic disparities persist, with many workers feeling the impact of rising costs without corresponding wage increases.

Immigration

Immigration is a hot-button issue this election, with significant debate surrounding border security and the treatment of migrants. The ongoing challenges at the southern border, including a surge in undocumented crossings, have prompted calls for comprehensive immigration reform. The Biden-Harris administration has faced criticism for its handling of immigration policies, leading to a polarized discussion among voters.

Abortion rights

The landscape of reproductive rights in the U.S. has drastically changed following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which has led to various states enacting restrictive abortion laws. This has mobilized advocacy groups and ignited heated debates over women’s vs unborn babies’ rights and healthcare access. Some voters are seeking candidates who will protect reproductive rights at the federal level, while others support the state-level decisions that have emerged since the ruling.

Foreign policy

Foreign policy is becoming increasingly relevant as global tensions rise, particularly with China, Russia, and the Middle East. Issues such as trade, military presence abroad, and diplomatic relations are under scrutiny. Voters are concerned about national security and there is fierce debate on what the U.S.’s role on the world stage should be.

The culture war issues

The so-called “culture war” encompasses a wide array of topics, including debates over education, identity politics, free speech, and social justice movements. Issues such as Critical Race Theory, LGBTQ+ rights, and parental control over education are increasingly polarizing and are seen by many as reflective of deeper societal divides. Candidates are navigating these sensitive topics, trying to appeal to their bases while addressing the concerns of moderate voters.

Let’s look at each candidate’s platform

Donald Trump

Economy

Trump advocates for tax cuts and deregulation to stimulate economic growth. He emphasizes the importance of American manufacturing and aims to bring jobs back to the U.S. from overseas. His economic policies also focus on tariffs, reducing the national debt, and promoting energy independence through fossil fuel production.

Immigration

Trump continues to prioritize the strong enforcement of immigration policies, including enhancing border security and completing the construction of a border wall. He advocates for measures to limit illegal immigration, supports deportation starting with illegal immigrants who have committed crimes inside the US, and supports merit-based immigration systems to favor skilled workers.

Foreign Policy

Trump’s foreign policy platform includes an “America First” approach, which emphasizes prioritizing American interests in trade agreements and international relations. He is critical of multinational agreements and organizations that he perceives as disadvantageous to the U.S. and supports a more unilateral approach to foreign policy. He has also advocated for the cessation of contemporary conflicts and the subduing of Iran through economic measures.

Culture and Social Issues

Trump’s platform includes a strong stance on First and Second Amendment rights and opposition to what he describes as “left lunatic” culture. He emphasizes the importance of law and order and is supportive of police and law enforcement agencies.

Kamala Harris

Economy

Harris advocates for raising the federal minimum wage and expanding access to affordable healthcare. She supports progressive taxation to address income inequality and emphasizes investment in clean energy and infrastructure to create jobs.

Immigration

Harris supports a comprehensive immigration reform approach that includes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She emphasizes the need for humane immigration policies and addressing the root causes of migration from Central America.

Foreign Policy

Harris promotes a foreign policy that emphasizes diplomacy, human rights, and climate change as key issues. She advocates for strengthening alliances and working collaboratively with international partners to address global challenges.

Culture and Social Issues

Harris advocates for social justice issues, including criminal justice reform and measures to address systemic racism. She supports LGBTQ+ rights and women’s rights, including reproductive rights, and emphasizes the importance of diversity and inclusion in all areas of society.


Looking at the polls and betting odds

This electoral map is based on the latest from Rasmussen Reports (with some minor adjustments to leave the battleground states tossup). The general consensus is that Nevada, Arizona, Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and Georgia are the key battleground states. We will also look at Minnesota in some more detail.

With these states locked in the Democrats stand with 225 electoral votes and the Republicans with 2020.

Pennsylvania

The current Polymarket betting odds give Donald Trump a 56% to 45% advantage over Joe Biden.

In the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump holds a slight lead of 0.3%. This contrasts sharply with polling data from this same point in the 2020 election, where Biden had a much more substantial lead of 7.1%. Ultimately, the 2020 election concluded with Biden winning by a margin of just 1.2%. This indicates that the polls significantly overestimated Biden’s support, resulting in a polling error of 5.9 percentage points.

Georgia

Currently, Polymarket gives Donald Trump a significant advantage, showing a betting line of 64% to 37% over Joe Biden.

According to the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump leads by 0.8%. This is a slight shift from the polling data at the same point in the 2020 election, where Trump had a marginal lead of just 0.4%. Ultimately, the 2020 election resulted in Biden winning by a narrow margin of 0.3%. This means that the polls slightly overestimated Trump’s support, leading to an error of 0.7 percentage points.

North Carolina

Polymarket currently indicates a strong advantage for Donald Trump, with betting odds showing him leading at 62% compared to Joe Biden’s 38%.

In the latest Real Clear Politics polling average, Trump holds a slight lead of 0.6%. This contrasts with the polling data at the same time in the 2020 election cycle, which showed Biden ahead by 1.9%. Ultimately, the 2020 election outcome favored Trump, who won by a margin of 1.3%. This reflects a polling error, as the polls overestimated Biden’s support by 3.2 percentage points.

Michigan

Polymarket currently shows a narrow advantage for Donald Trump, with betting odds indicating a 52% lead over Joe Biden at 49%.

The latest Real Clear Politics polling average reflects a slight Trump lead of 0.8%. This stands in stark contrast to the polling data from the same time during the 2020 election cycle, where Biden held a significant lead of 6.7%. Ultimately, the election outcome favored Biden by 2.8%, revealing a notable discrepancy. The polling error indicates that polls overestimated Biden’s support by 3.9 percentage points.

Wisconsin

Polymarket currently shows a tight race, with Trump and Harris neck and neck at 50-50.

The Real Clear Polling average indicates a slight lead for Harris at +0.4. In comparison, polling data from this time in 2020 showed Biden ahead by +5.5. Ultimately, the 2020 election outcome reflected a narrow victory for Biden at +0.6. This reveals that the polls significantly overestimated Biden’s support, with an error margin of 4.9 points.

Nevada

Polymarket currently shows Harris with a narrow advantage over Trump, at 52-49.

The Real Clear Polling average reflects this with Harris leading by +1.0. At this time in 2020, polling data indicated Biden had a more substantial lead of +6.0. The eventual outcome of the 2020 election showed Biden winning by +2.4. This discrepancy suggests that polls overestimated Biden’s support during that period, resulting in an error margin of 3.6 points.

Arizona

Polymarket currently shows Trump with a significant advantage over Harris, at 66-34.

The Real Clear Polling average indicates Trump leading by +0.9. In the same period in 2020, polling showed Trump with a narrower lead of +0.4. However, the actual election outcome revealed that Biden won by +2.7. This means that the polls significantly overestimated Trump’s support during that election cycle, resulting in an error margin of 3.1 points.



Prediction

Based on the latest polls, betting odds and historical polling errors, as well as the candidates’ recent public appearances, I give the advantage to Donald Trump at this stage of the race. I expect that we will see more accurate polling as we approach November and voters become more engaged.

Harris’ lack of traditional support from unions, her recent comments about maintaining Biden’s status quo, and her tendency to avoid policy specifics will continue to hurt her campaign.

Based on these factors, if the election were held today, I would estimate Trump edging just over 300 electoral votes and taking the presidency, being only the second president in history to serve two non-consecutive terms.

However, with several weeks remaining and the potential for continued unexpected developments, there is every possibility that the dynamics of the race could shift significantly before election day.

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