The Presidential Race
With just over 20 days until election day, let’s take a look at the polls, betting markets, and other key considerations.
There are several key issues central to this election
Economy
The U.S. economy remains a central concern for voters as inflation continues to affect everyday life. Prices for essential goods, fuel, and housing have risen significantly, straining household budgets. While job growth has been robust in some sectors, economic disparities persist, with many workers feeling the impact of rising costs without corresponding wage increases.
Immigration
Immigration is a hot-button issue this election, with significant debate surrounding border security and the treatment of migrants. The ongoing challenges at the southern border, including a surge in undocumented crossings, have prompted calls for comprehensive immigration reform. The Biden-Harris administration has faced criticism for its handling of immigration policies, leading to a polarized discussion among voters.
Abortion rights
The landscape of reproductive rights in the U.S. has drastically changed following the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, which has led to various states enacting restrictive abortion laws. This has mobilized advocacy groups and ignited heated debates over women’s vs unborn babies’ rights and healthcare access. Some voters are seeking candidates who will protect reproductive rights at the federal level, while others support the state-level decisions that have emerged since the ruling.
Foreign policy
Foreign policy is becoming increasingly relevant as global tensions rise, particularly with China, Russia, and the Middle East. Issues such as trade, military presence abroad, and diplomatic relations are under scrutiny. Voters are concerned about national security and there is fierce debate on what the U.S.’s role on the world stage should be.
The culture war issues
The so-called “culture war” encompasses a wide array of topics, including debates over education, identity politics, free speech, and social justice movements. Issues such as Critical Race Theory, LGBTQ+ rights, and parental control over education are increasingly polarizing and are seen by many as reflective of deeper societal divides. Candidates are navigating these sensitive topics, trying to appeal to their bases while addressing the concerns of moderate voters.
Let’s look at each candidate’s platform
Donald Trump
Economy
Trump advocates for tax cuts and deregulation to stimulate economic growth. He emphasizes the importance of American manufacturing and aims to bring jobs back to the U.S. from overseas. His economic policies also focus on tariffs, reducing the national debt, and promoting energy independence through fossil fuel production.
Immigration
Trump continues to prioritize the strong enforcement of immigration policies, including enhancing border security and completing the construction of a border wall. He advocates for measures to limit illegal immigration, supports deportation starting with illegal immigrants who have committed crimes inside the US, and supports merit-based immigration systems to favor skilled workers.
Foreign Policy
Trump’s foreign policy platform includes an “America First” approach, which emphasizes prioritizing American interests in trade agreements and international relations. He is critical of multinational agreements and organizations that he perceives as disadvantageous to the U.S. and supports a more unilateral approach to foreign policy. He has also advocated for the cessation of contemporary conflicts and the subduing of Iran through economic measures.
Culture and Social Issues
Trump’s platform includes a strong stance on First and Second Amendment rights and opposition to what he describes as “left lunatic” culture. He emphasizes the importance of law and order and is supportive of police and law enforcement agencies.
Kamala Harris
Economy
Harris advocates for raising the federal minimum wage and expanding access to affordable healthcare. She supports progressive taxation to address income inequality and emphasizes investment in clean energy and infrastructure to create jobs.
Immigration
Harris supports a comprehensive immigration reform approach that includes a pathway to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. She emphasizes the need for humane immigration policies and addressing the root causes of migration from Central America.
Foreign Policy
Harris promotes a foreign policy that emphasizes diplomacy, human rights, and climate change as key issues. She advocates for strengthening alliances and working collaboratively with international partners to address global challenges.
Culture and Social Issues
Harris advocates for social justice issues, including criminal justice reform and measures to address systemic racism. She supports LGBTQ+ rights and women’s rights, including reproductive rights, and emphasizes the importance of diversity and inclusion in all areas of society.
Looking at the polls and betting odds
Prediction