Election Day: Trump vs Harris

Trump: 312

Harris: 226

9:20PM EST Nov 6th (1:20 PM AEST)

Arizona has been called for Trump, giving him 312 electoral votes. With most of the votes now counted it also appears he will take the national popular vote. A huge night for the Republicans, also taking the Senate and likely to take the House. This ends this election blog but we will no doubt dive into this incredible election in the weeks to come.

1:30AM EST (5:30PM AEST)

PA has just been called for Trump. This pushes him over the magic 270! The second in history to serve two non-consecutive terms. I will continue to update the above map as states are called but Donald Trump is the 47th President of the United States.

12:00AM EST (4:00PM AEST)

All state polls are now closed!

Things are looking very good for Trump with NYT giving him the chance of taking MI at 66%, WI 73%, PA 74%, NV 64%, and AZ 80%. They have Harris’ chance of taking MN at 82%.

11:00PM EST (3:00PM AEST)

CA, ID, OR, and WA are now closed, leaving only HI and AK.

NYT now has the chance of Trump taking NC and GA at >95% (we have called them for Trump), MI at 66%, PA at 68%, PA at 67%, NEV at 62%, and AZ at 78%. They have Harris’ chance of taking MN at 65%.

10:00PM EST (2:00PM AEST)

MT, NV, and UT polls are now closed.

NYT now has the chance of Trump taking NC at 80%, GA at 83%, PA at 59%, NV at 55, and MI at 56%. They have the chance of Harris taking MN at 73%.

9:00PM EST (1:00PM AEST)

A large number of polls have now closed. States yet to close include MT, NV, UT, CA, ID, OR, WA, HI, and AK.

According to the NYT, Trump has a 62% chance to win NC, 72% to take Georgia, 66% to take Arizona, 52% to win PA, and 53% to win Nevada. While Kamala has a 52% chance to win Wisconsin, and MI is a dead heat!

7:20PM EST (11:17AM AEST)

A number of calls have been made including IN and KY for Trump, and VT for Harris.

7:00PM EST (11:00AM AEST)

Polls have now closed in GA, IN, KY, SC, VT and VA. At 7:30PM EST NC, OH, and WV will close.

It is very early days but at this stage we can have a look at some of the early counts:


5:00PM EST (9:00AM AEST)

Well the day is finally here. Polls will begin to close shortly, so let’s take a look at the final polling averages and betting markets, as well as some of the key events of the last week.

National: Trump vs Harris

The latest head-to-head national poll is essentially a dead heat with Harris up by 0.1%.

National: Multi-Candidate

When we look at the multi-candidate poll, it remains a dead heat with Trump holding a 0.1% advantage.


The national vote is interesting and can be an indicator, however realistically the election will be decided in the swing states.

The RCP polling aggregate shows Trump ahead in five of the seven swing states. Having said that, most of them are so close it would be foolish for either side to take a any confidence from these indicators.

Looking at the betting markets for the swing states, we can see some parallels to the polls, with Trump ahead in the same five swing states.

The home stretch

Trump

As expected, Trump, with exceptional energy for a man of his age, held a number of rallies, the last of which went into the early hours of the morning in Grand Rapids MI. However, the more interesting, and potentially impactful, events of the past week were the series of guests on the biggest podcast in America, The Joe Rogan Experience. Rogan had Trump, Vance, and Musk on his podcast in the lead-up to election day. Each was an in-depth, long-form discussion that allowed the guests, particularly Trump and Vance, to take advantage of a format that allowed people to get a better idea of them as people.

This culminated in a public endorsement for Trump from Rogan following his podcast with Musk:

The great and powerful @elonmusk.
If it wasn’t for him we’d be fucked. He makes what I think is the most compelling case for Trump you’ll hear, and I agree with him every step of the way. For the record, yes, that’s an endorsement of Trump. Enjoy the podcast.

While I have had a suspicion Rogan was going to vote for Trump, I was not sure whether a public endorsement would be made. Following the endorsement the betting odds swung in Trump’s favor by approximately 6% on PolyMarket. How this translates to votes today is unclear, but it is likely the endorsement from Rogan will have some impact.

Harris

Harris also held a number of rallies, with celebrities coming out to endorse and speak briefly on why they are supporting Kamala. Joe Rogan had an open invitation for Kamala to have a discussion on his podcast. Based on Rogan's comments, it seems that she wanted it limited to 45 minutes and did not want to travel to his Austin studio for the discussion. Joe said he felt that 45 minutes was insufficient and as Elon pointed out on his podcast, it is easy to stick to talking points in such a short discussion. Joe also felt that it needed to be in his studio for the correct atmosphere.

Kamala’s final rally was held in Scranton PA.

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The 47th Presidential Election: A Resounding Victory for Trump

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